Sober October and Seeing the Trend Within the Trend

The idea is pretty simple: take a month off from drinking alcohol. For a few years now, the rise of non-alcoholic drinks has been forecasted as a slump for the alcohol industry. Trend reports declaring that Gen Z is drinking less have usually focused on how the younger generation has figured out the health risks, enjoy alcohol less and have created their own traditions to avoid alcohol - like Dry January or Sober October. The truth, though, may be more interesting and nuanced. Consider this report from a recent Nielsen survey:

“93% of nonalcoholic buyers also purchase alcohol. In bars and restaurants, 47% of consumers mix alcoholic and nonalcoholic choices during the same occasion, a practice sometimes called “zebra striping.” Nonalcoholic beer, wine and spirits have now reached $925 million in U.S. off-premise sales, up 21.9% from the previous year.”

There is an opportunity in non-alcoholic beverages that most of these stories rarely focus on. Let’s call it the “one more drink” phenomenon. Those nights when you want to stay out, but have already had a drink or two (or more!) and now you need to slow down. So you turn to the non-alcoholic option ... and you stay at the party for longer.

This is a perfect example of the sort of insight that can come from seeking the trend within the trend. On the surface, it seems like people are drinking less and so the entire alcohol industry and those that partner with it (such as restaurants and bars) would be in jeopardy. When you dig deeper, you can see the one-more-drink opportunity and cater towards that instead.