Today, about half of the world’s land is used for farming. In the future, it could be far less–even as food production increases. As technology improves, we can grow more food on less land. This is leading to what some experts are describing as a “peak farmland” moment where large areas are reforesting, wild animals are returning and we’re turning the clock backwards. It’s not just technology-driven efficiency that is leading to this trend though:
We have also replaced some land-hungry crops with near-landless alternatives: wool and cotton have been to a major extent replaced by synthetic fibres; tobacco is rapidly being replaced by synthetic nicotine; flavourings in food such as vanilla are now largely synthetic; the global caffeine (although not coffee) market is dominated by production in labs; synthetic sweeteners have replaced substantial amounts of sugar cane and sugar beet. We estimate that these synthetic substitutes have spared over 110 million hectares (two Spains) of land from farming.
This broad movement is one that Henry and I first wrote about in The Future Normal and described with the term “Unnaturally Better” which we used to describe a future where our lives can be improved or made more efficient or convenient through artificial means and contrast this with the common belief that natural is always superior. Synthetic fuels, fabrics and food are all growing spaces where we will likely see many more examples of “better” products, which in turn may continue to lead to Earth-shifting trends like reforestation due to hitting peak farmland.